Establishing The Internet in Public Schools

Modems, e-mail, www's and .com's – are these phrases merely a part of a worldwide fad, or are they here to stay? And if they are, then what role should they play in the future of public education? Many times, new things come along, and we all jump on the big boat of opportunity so quickly that we forget to look at the long term merits of what we're boarding. The Internet is a good example of this, and we should all take a much closer look before we decide whether the Internet has a purpose and a place in the public schools of tomorrow. Education is merely preparing students for the future. But what is the future? No one can say with certainty. But by taking a quick look around us, we can guess that the Internet will play a prominent role in our future. If we look at the stock market, for example, we can see internet and technology stocks skyrocketing beginning their first day on the market. Or, turn on the television and one will surely hear a commercial telling everyone to check out their company's web site for more information on their product. Daily, we can see the Internet becoming more integrated in our lives and in the lives of our youth. Without the internet in our schools, how will teachers instruct students to take full advantage of what the internet has to offer? After establishing that the Internet is indeed a growing part of our society that will not likely disappear soon, schools and their administrators must decide if the Internet is a necessity or a luxury. The answer is simple; the Internet is a luxury. If it were a necessity for public schools' survival, then how have they made it this far without it? Though the Internet is a luxury, that does not mean it has no place in public schools. Imagine schools today without luxuries such as the light bulb, copy machine, or personal computer. Ten years ago, it would have been impossible to compose a letter, to send it, and have it received all in a matter of seconds. It is imperative that students are taught how to access these new opportunities so that when compared with other students anywhere in the world, they will not lag behind in Internet proficiency. Schools must begin to incorporate internet education into their regular curriculum in order for students to be successful in today's internet-savvy world. It is the responsibility of public schools to prepare our students for the future, and without the Internet in our schools, this would be impossible. By forbidding the internet to enter our schools, we would be condemning our students by sending them out into the age of the internet, being armed with nothing. Though the merit of the Internet itself will continue to be debated, it is obviously becoming an important part of our society and, therefore, must also become an important part of our schools, which are the future of our society. Had the youth of yesterday not been taught how to use computers, then they could not have created the internet of today. Therefore, if students of today are not taught how to use the Internet, then we are limiting the possibility of new discoveries tomorrow. It is important that we realize this: the education that is provided for our youth today will determine our future. In conclusion, schools and its communities must accept the inevitable and climb aboard the Internet ship of opportunity before it sets sail, leaving the future of our students, communities and nation behind. Where will this fateful journey end? Will it end in tragedy such as the Titanic, or will we be sailing on the Nina, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria to end at yet another beginning where something newer and more exciting awaits us? Only time can tell.

Rose for Emily

Aleksandra Filipovski English 1102 Dr. William Belford January 23, 2012 Compare and contrast Faulkner’s characterizations of Abner Snopes in â€Å"Barn Burning† and Miss Emily in â€Å"A Rose for Emily†. How does Faulkner generate sympathy in the reader for each character even though both characters are guilty of terrible crimes? Toward which character are you more sympathetic? Explain why. Two characters are worth to compare in Faulkner’s fictions Miss Emily in â€Å"A Rose for Emily†, and Abner Snopes in â€Å"Barn Burning†. Emily Grierson is an important figure in the town. She is not having any social life there, mostly quiet lady, but still a big element of the town’s life. On the contrary, Abner Snopes is a loud person that most people tend to avoid. They are completely opposite but surprisingly they have similarities in their personalities. First of all, the two characters have different backgrounds. Miss Emily is from a wealthy family, lives in a huge beautiful house, rebuilt after the Civil War. Her house is in the middle of Jefferson, at least it was when it was built. The nicest, richest area. The main character in Faulkner’s fiction is Emily Grierson. Miss Emily will always be defined by her bizarre habits. Since we can’t follow her to the house we don’t know much. Tobe is a regular town man who helps and works for Miss Emily. Different generations and different characters treat her differently. They think about her more as an idol than a freak lady. But Emily is just a human, who lost her dad and her loved husband too. Their color of hair, which is grey, defines what age are they in. They are older people, and stubborn. They don’t like changes. The color of Tobe’s skin shows us his available options in the town and in that period the black people were the servant and the slaves, and the white represented the wealthy families. His skin isolates him from the rest of the people. Tobe is just a servant who serves Miss Emily. He is going to the grocery store every day, and coming back with a full basket. We never see inside the house, so we can’t really tell how the life is in the building. Miss Emily never goes out from her home. The only time someone saw her was on the second floor out of the window for a second. Emily was a mistery for everyone in the town. There is something about Emily and her physical appearance. She is described as an angel by the narrator after her father’s death. And she is also described twice as an idol in the fiction. This confuses us because we have a picture in our heads that she is a crazy and an insane person. She killed someone how she can be named or compared with an idol.

History of the Middle East

CW43: The Middle East and Arab-Israeli Conflict, c1900–2001 Jewish settlement in Palestine, 1900–45 Conflict |Causes of conflict |Presence and influence of other actors and |Changing Arab-Israeli relationships |Proposed solutions | | | |international events | | | |World War One |Misperceptions |Actors: Ottoman Empire |Jewish settlements |Paris Peace Conference | |Britain and Arabs ally against the Ottoman|Unaware of the details of the Sykes-Picot |Until 1917, retention of Arab customs in |Lovers of Zion; Rishon-le-Zion; more than 40 |Arabs should have the right to national | |Empire; expectation from the Arabs that |Agreement and the Balfour Declaration; Britain’s|Palestine |Zionist settlements in Palestine by 1914; Jewish|self-determination; need for a major power| |they would get Palestine in return; |support for both them and Zionism | |population doubled between |to help them run their new country; | |Hussein-McMahon letters | |Actors: Britain |1922–29 |Britain received the mandate to look after| | |Arab disagreement with various proposals: |Balfour Declaration; given a mandate over | |Palestine, also confirmed that the terms | |Political conflict |verdict of Paris Peace Conference |Palestine by the Paris Peace Conference; helped |Reasons for migration |of the Balfour Declaration should apply to| |Emir Feisal becomes king of an Arab state |Decision to include the Balfour Declaration in |the Jews build up their military forces such as |Influence of Rothschild; Herzl and the Zionist |the new country | |consisting of Palestine, Lebanon, |the way n which Palestine was to be governed; |the Hagannah and the Irgun Zvai Leumi |Congress in 1897; Jewish National Fund | | |Transjordan and Syria; publicly opposes |Peel Report – proposed a Jewish state and an | | |Peel Report | |Zionist migration; Arab parties unite to |Arab state |Actors: King-Crane Commission |Wartime immigration |Palestine should be divided into a Jewish | |form th e Arab Higher Committee; Ben | |Concluded that the case for a Zionist presence |Jews smuggled in by ship: the Struma |state and an Arab state; Britain to keep | |Gurion’s conference at the Biltmore Hotel |Rate of settlement |should be dropped; findings ignored by Paris | |control of the area around Jerusalem | |calls for the immediate creation of a |Herbert Samuel’s influence; Jewish population |Peace Conference | | | |Jewish state in Palestine |doubled between 1922–29 | | |1939 White Paper | | | |Actors: France | |Jewish immigration to be limited to 75,000| |Civil disobedience |Extreme Zionism |King Feisal started attacking the French; French| |over the next five years; no more | |1936 general strike |Vladimir Jabotinsky, demonstration near the |removed him from Syria and Lebanon | |immigration without Arab consent | | |Mosque of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem | | | | |Arab-Israeli violence | |Actors:Herbert Samuel | |1942 Biltmore Programme | |Protest again st Samuel’s decision; 1929 |Jewish dissatisfaction |British Jew, High Commissioner of Palestine; | |Calls for the immediate creation of a | |massacre; Irgun planted bombs and shot |Anger at the 1939 White Paper in light of the |16,500 Jews to be allowed to settle in Palestine| |Jewish state in Palestine | |Arabs in response to the White Paper |Nazi threat |in 1920 | | | | | | | | | |Arab-British violence | |Events: First World War; Paris Peace Conference | | | |1937–39 rebellion | | | | | | | | | | | |Jewish-British violence | | | | | |Lehi, Abraham Stern, Lord Moyne, Irgun | | | | | |violence | | | | | | | | | | |World War Two | | | | | |30,000 Jews in Palestine joined the | | | | | |British army | | | | | The creation of the state of Israel and its impact Conflict |Causes of conflict |Presence and influence of other actors and |Changing Arab-Israeli relationships |Proposed solutions | | | |international events | | | |Irgun and Lehi |British immigration limits |Presi dent Truman |Propaganda – Ben Gurion and the Jewish Agency |UN voted in November 1947 to partition | |From 1946, the Irgun and the Lehi began a |Despite President Truman’s declaration that |Demanded that 100,000 Jews be allowed into |continued to try to smuggle Jews into Palestine |Palestine six months from that date; | |large-scale campaign of violence against |100,000 Jews should be allowed into Palestine, |Palestine at once | |Jerusalem should be an international zone | |the British, including the blowing up of |the British fixed the limit at 1500 a month. | |Political change |under UN control; Jewish and Arab states | |the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, |This was the last straw for the Lehi and the |United Nations |On 15 May 1948, the British mandate ended and |should be linked in an economic union to | |headquarters of the British government in |Irgun; Exodus Asked to take back the mandate from Britain and |the Arab and Jewish states came into being; the |help eac h other’s trade | |Palestine, which killed 91 people | |decide the future of the country; UN Special |Jews named their state Israel and formed a | | | |UNSCOP Plan |Committee on Palestine; truce arranged on |government led by David Ben Gurion | | |Death toll |Jewish state would be larger than the Arab |11 June 1948 which allowed the Israelis to | | | |212 killings in Palestine |state; vote for partition was followed by |reorganise their army and transport the Czech |Effects of the violence | | | |violent Arab protests which soon turned into |weapons they had bought earlier in the year from|Nearly a million Palestinians left or were | | |Civil War |killings and counter-killings between Jews and |Europe; second truce lasted until October 15 |forced to leave their homes; most went to Jordan| | |Operation Dalet, Deir Yassin capture of |Arabs | |and the Gaza Strip, many went to Syria and | | |Tiberias, Haifa and Jaffa; Hagganah | |Arab League |Lebanon; Arab state of Palestine ceas ed to | | |occupied most of the Arab areas of West |Purchasing of arms |Palestine turned to it for help; however, it had|exist; Palestinians became a minority people in | | |Jerusalem |Hagannah leaders went to Skoda arms firm in |only been created recently and its members were |the new state of Israel | | | |Czechoslovakia and bought a huge quantity of |divided on many issues | | |War of Liberation |armaments | |Reasons for Palestinian migration | | |The civil war of 1948 was about to turn | | |Massacre at Deir Yassin, Israeli military | | |into an international war, the first of a |Arab League assistance | |victory; Arab leaders encouraged them to leave | | |series of Arab-Israeli conflicts that has |Arab League in December 1947 declared partition | |during the conflict | | |rocked the Middle East since 1948.On 15 |illegal and gave the Palestinians 10,000 rifles;| | | | |May 1948, armies from Egypt, Lebanon, |early in 1948 it formed an Arab Liberation Army | | | | |Transjordan, Ira q and Syria entered |of 3000 volunteers to fight in partition | | | | |Palestine with the aim of helping the | | | | | |Palestinian Arabs fight the Jewish state |Formation of Ben Gurion government | | | | |of Israel which had been created that day;|Five neighbouring Arab countries sent armies to | | | | |Arab Legion of Transjordan had taken back |make war on Israel | | | |control of the Old City of Jerusalem; | | | | | |Israelis seized western Galilee; drove the| | | | | |Lebanese back north; Israel was left in | | | | | |control of 80% of the land | | | | | Reasons for, and outcomes of, Arab-Israeli conflicts to 1973 War of 1948 |War of 1956 |War of 1967 |War of 1973 | |Description: |Description: |Description: |Description: | |On 15 May 1948, armies from Egypt, Lebanon, Transjordan, |Lasted for 10 days; invasion began on |5 June 1967; Israeli initial air strike (bombed Egyptian |6 October; the Day of Atonement; Arab initial success: | |Iraq and Syria entered Palestine with the aim of helping |29 October; advanced deep into Sinai; involvement of |airfields and launched similar attacks against the other |smashed Israel’s Suez Canal defences; 80,000 Egyptians | |the Palestinian Arabs fight the Jewish state of Israel |Britain and France; Egypt refused to evacuate Suez Canal |Arab air forces); land war (drove Egyptians out of the |crossed the canal; destroyed Israeli tanks; Syria | |which had been created that day |zone and were bombed by the British and French; UN voted |Gaza strip and Sinai; defeated Jordan within two days, |advanced into the Golan Heights and drove the Israelis | | for a ceasefire; Arab countries stopped supplying Britain|capturing the Old City of Jerusalem and the ‘West Bank’; |back into Galilee; Israel fought back: US weapons sent to| |Causes: |with oil; USA refused to support the invasion; Eden |attacked the Syrian army in the Golan Heights and this |Israel; 254,000 reservists mobilised; 14 October tank | |Establishme nt of Ben Gurion government; unhappiness with |forced to agree to a ceasefire just 24 hours after the |was over by June 10); United Nations ordered a ceasefire |battle against the Egyptians; Israel crossed into the | |the UN Partition Plan; British mandate expiring; both |first British troops had landed in Egypt; UN Emergency |which the Arab nations had to accept |Suez Canal; international pressure – USSR wanted it ended| |sides rearmed |Force moved in to police the border between Egypt and | |(feared that the Egyptians would lose); USA wanted it | | |Israel |Causes: |ended (did not want to provoke the Soviets into giving | |Effects: | |- Syria became violently anti-Israel (General Jedid’s |even more weapons to Egypt and Syria); joint ceasefire | |- Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria signed armistices |Causes: |takeover, attacks by Fatah guerrillas from Syria |proposed came into force on 22 October | |with Israel but no peace treaty; many Arabs have refused|- Nasser wan ted to avenge Egypt’s defeat in the 1948 war|increased) | | |to recognise Israel and have talked about destroying it;|against Israel and to return Palestine to the Arabs; |- Land dispute – Israeli tractor ploughed up some |Causes: | |many Jews arrived in Israel from existing refugee camps |increased wealth and armed strength; his reputation in |Arab-owned land close to the border and met Syrian fire. |- Sadat replaced Nasser in 1970 and he wanted to reverse| |and communities from Eastern Europe |the Arab world increased; he aimed to unite the Arabs |Israel responded by bombing Syrian guns.Israel warned |the Arab defeat of 1967 | |- Israel’s first law in 1950 was the Law of Return; |under Egyptian leadership |that it would strike back if Syria did not stop |- Egypt was more ready – asked the USSR for assistance; | |anti-Jewish riots; in Iraq, Zionism was punishable by |- 1955 arms agreement with Czechoslovakia gave Egypt |- USSR intervention (incorrectly a rgued that Israel was |plans were made for an invasion of Sinai across the Suez| |death; Arab protest at Israeli diversion of the waters |many Soviet weapons |ready to invade Syria at short notice); King Feisal of |Canal; Syria would also attack from the Golan Heights | |of River Jordan |- Support for Algerian rebels angered France – supported|Saudi Arabia and King Hussein of Jordan promised to help| | |- Need for $65 million of international aid to cope with|Arab rebels who were fighting the French in their colony|Syria |Effects: | |new humanitarian needs; change of leadership in Arab |of Algeria |- Nasser ordered UN Emergency Force to leave Egyptian |- Israeli victory: 12,000 Arabs had been killed compared| |governments: assassination of Egyptian prime minister in|- Nationalisation of Aswan Dam angered Britain – it had |territory; UN was ordered to withdraw; barred the Gulf |to 2000 Israelis | |1948; a series of military takeovers in 1949; in 1950: |been owned lar gely by British and French shareholders; |of Aqaba to Israeli ships; military pacts (Jordan and |- Oil as a weapon: OAPEC increased the price of Arab oil| |assassination of Lebanese prime minister; murder of |Nasser did this after Britain and the USA cancelled the|Egypt formed a defence pact; eight Arab states were |until Israel withdrew from Egypt and Syria | |King Abdullah of Jordan; coup in Egypt which gave |loans they had promised |poised to attack); Moshe Dayan (appointed Minister of |- USA tried to appease the Arabs | |Colonel Nasser power; Arab leaders blamed their defeat |- Increase of Fedayeen ttacks angered Israel – |Defence) decided to use attack as a form of defence |- Britain stopped supplying Israel with weapons | |on Britain and the USA and concentrated on improving |continuance of cross-border attacks; closing of the | |- EEC expressed sympathy for the Palestinians | |their economies |entrance of the Gulf of Aqaba to Israeli ships | |- Kissinger’s propo sal: disengagement of | | | | |Israeli and Egyptian forces should happen in 1974; they | | | | |should withdraw to pre-ceasefire positions; UN army | | | | |should control the gap between them; Israel should | | | | |withdraw from Sinai and in return get American aid | Reasons for, and outcomes of, Arab-Israeli conflicts to 1973 (cont) |War of 1948 |War of 1956 |War of 1967 |War of 1973 | | – Some of the new leaders hoped for a union of the Arab|Effects: |Effects: | | |countries; very little action taken on Palestinian |- Egypt’s military power reduced – 1000 casualties; |- Israel improved its strength and security – kept | | |refugees among all Arab countries, except Jordan; |Israel accepted as a permanent member of the |Sinai, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Golan Heights, and doubled| | |Fedayeen established – secret guerrilla attacks on |international community |the size of the country | | |Israeli targets; each year from 1949 to 1955, some 250 |- B ritain and France humiliated – their influence in the|- Disaster for the Arabs – 15,000 men killed; 800 tanks | | |Israelis were killed or wounded in such attacks.This |Middle East declined; had to leave Egypt empty-handed; |captured or destroyed; suffering for the Palestinians – | | |prompted Israeli attacks in retaliation, including an |failed to overthrow Nasser; failed to keep the Suez |those who had been living in the West Bank and the Gaza | | |attack on the village of Qibya in Jordan in 1953 and in |Canal open; had to introduce petrol rationing |Strip were now in occupied territories and faced heavy | | |1955 the Israelis mounted a raid on the Gaza strip after|- Israel gained security against Fedayeen attacks – |restrictions on their lives | | |a series of Fedayeen attacks on their territory; Arab |destroyed their bases; UN took over Sharm el-Sheikh and |- Strength of Fatah – Turned to Fatah rather than other | | |boycott of Israeli trade â €“ Israeli ships could not use |Gaza; emergence of Palestine Liberation Organisation |Arab states – Fatah increased their weapons; Battle of | | |the Suez Canal; confiscation of cargo from Israeli |- Nasser’s reputation in the Arab world increased – |Karameh; Arafat became leader; continual fighting | | |ships which called at Arab ports; Israel was in a |pro-western governments in Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq |between Egypt and Israel; support from USSR; 1970 | | |permanent state of tension |turned against France and Britain; hopes for United Arab|ceasefire; Guerrilla warfare (PFLP, Dawson’s Field | | | |League were soon dashed hijackings), Black September Organisation assassinated | | | | |the Prime Minister of Jordan, kidnapped and later | | | | |murdered eleven Israeli athletes taking part in the | | | | |Munich Olympic Games; failed diplomatic effort – UN | | | | |Resolution 242 | |Arab nationalism in the 1980s and 1990s, and divisions in the A rab world |Divisions in the Arab world |Conflict | |President Sadat |Direct conflict between Israel and Lebanon | |Sadat’s initiative: recognised Israel’s existence; Camp David Agreement of 1978; Washington Treaty 1979; caused |26,000 Israeli troops invaded Lebanon in response to a bus hijack; PLO continued their attacks undeterred by the UN| |fury in the Arab world; President Sadat was murdered by angry Egyptian soldiers |or the Christian militia leader, Major Haddad; June 1982 – 172,000 Israeli soldiers invaded Lebanon; UN let them | | |pass; forced the PLO out of Beirut; PLO went to Algeria and Iraq. Defeat for Israel – assassination of pro-Israeli | |Lebanon |Maronite President Gemayel of Lebanon; Sabra-Chatila massacre turned public opinion in Israel against the war; | |Sunnis, Shi’ites, Druzes; Christians-Maronites, Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholics; conflict between Maronites and |Defence Minister Ariel Sharon resigned; Israel had to withdra w from Beirut; met with suicide bombs from fanatical | |SunniMuslims; refugee problem |Shi’ites | | | | |PLO in Lebanon |PLO attacks | |Muslims in Lebanese government supported the PLO whilst the Maronites condemned them; full-scale civil war between |By 1986, PLO guerrillas were back in south Lebanon and making cross-border attacks on Israel; splinter groups came | |Phalangist Militia and Tiger Militia and Shi’ite and Druze Muslims; Syria invaded Lebanon on the side of the |into being; Palestine Liberal Front hijacked a cruise ship and the Abu Nidal group hijacked an Egyptian airliner | |Christians and then killed Christians | | | |Internationalisation of conflict | |Civil war between terrorist groups in Lebanon |Terror campaign was spread in places like Britain and France; in 1986 an American soldier was killed by a terrorist| |Islamic Jihad Organisation; Hezbollah; Arab Red Knights; Black Brigades; civil war involved taking of hostages |bomb in West Berlin; US bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi | | | | |Rise of Hamas from Fatah |Political dissension within Israel | |Following on from this, Hamas and other militant organisations rose to power and shook the foundations of the |Peres – talks in Morocco and Egypt; Taba; Yitzchak Shamir – no negotiation with the Arabs over the West Bank; | |authority which Fatah under Arafat had established. However, Arafat remained in his position until a month before |Jewish settlers continued to build new settlements there; Likud talked of extreme solutions such as the nnexation | |his death in 2004 |of the occupied territories | | | | | |Intifada | | |On 9 December 1987 an Israeli army patrol shot two attackers; uprising soon followed; strikes and economic | | |boycotts; refused to work for Israeli employers; Israel’s response – ‘iron fist’ | | | | | |Arafat’s change of tactics | | |Renounced terrorism; proclamation of independent state of Palestine; soug ht to negotiate a settlement with Israel; | | |USA entered into talks with the PLO; the Oslo Accords of 1993, agreed by Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and | | |PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, granted the Palestinians the right to self-government in the Gaza Strip and the city of| | |Jericho in the West Bank, through the creation of the Palestinian Authority. The PLO had used negotiating tools to | | |get as close to their stated aims as was realistically possible, but this by no means marked the end of the | | |conflict, as the Second Intifada, with repeated suicide bombings, took place in 2000–04 | Sources |Lowe, N. Mastering Modern World History (3rd edition, Macmillan Masters, 997) | |BBC series, Cold War, written by Jeremy Isaac and Taylor Downing, published by Transworld in 1998 | |Hunter, R. E. The Six Day War (Purnell’s History of the 20th century, Vol. 6, Chapter 94, BBC, 1969) | |Kyle, K. Suez: Britain’s End of Empire in the Middle East (I. B. Taur is, 2003) | |Mandle, B. Conflict in the Promised Land (Heinemann, 1976) | |Mansfield, P. A History of the Middle East (Penguin, 2003) | |Perkins, S. J.The Arab-Israeli Conflict (Nelson Thornes, 1991) | |Regan, G. Israel and the Arabs (Cambridge University Press, 1993) | |Scott-Baumann, M. Conflict in the Middle East: Israel and the Arabs (Hodder Murray, 2007) | Processes (Part A) |Assess the impact of British intervention 1914–21 on the growth of Arab nationalism in the ensuing decade. | |Assess the impact of Britain, Egypt and Suez 1945–56 on the growth of Arab nationalism in the ensuing decade. | |Assess the impact of the Cold War 1956–73 on the growth of Arab nationalism in the ensuing decade. |Assess the impact of the United Nations and the Gulf War 1990–91 on the growth of Arab nationalism in the ensuing decade. | The role of individuals (Part A) |What was the short-term significance of David Ben Gurion? | |What was the short-term significance of C olonel Abdel Nasser? | |What was the short-term significance of Yasser Arafat? | |What was the short-term significance of Saddam Hussein? | Key events (Part A) |What was the short-term significance of the creation of the state of Israel, 1948? | |What was the short-term significance of the war of Yom Kippur, 1973? | |What was the short-term significance of the Iranian Revolution, 1979? | |What was the short-term significance of the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, 1995? | Processes (Part B) How significant was the presence of foreign powers as an influence on the nature and growth of Arab nationalism in the years 1900–2001? | |How significant was the existence of Israeli-Arab wars as an influence on the nature and growth of Arab nationalism in the years 1900–2001? | |How significant was the promotion of proposed solutions as an influence on the nature and growth of Arab nationalism in the years 1900–2001? | |How significant was Israeli migration as an influence o n the nature and growth of Arab nationalism in the years 1900–2001? | The role of individuals (Part B) |Assess the significance of the role of individuals in affecting Israeli-Arab relations in the years 1900–2001. | Key events (Part B) To what extent do you consider the Balfour Declaration to be a key turning point in the political development of the Middle East during the 20th century? | |To what extent do you consider the 1948 Civil War in Palestine to be a key turning point in the political development of the Middle East during the 20th century? | |To what extent do you consider the founding of the Palestine Liberation Organisation to be a key turning point in the political development of the Middle East during the 20th century? | |To what extent do you consider the death of President Nasser to be a key turning point in the political development of the Middle East during the 20th century? |

The Life and Story of Joan Baez Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The Life and Story of Joan Baez - Essay Example Born in 1941 in the New York suburbs, Baez had quite a normal childhood (Baez 19), although due to the Mexican background she did face the discrimination and slurring at times based on racial differences. Yet she never responded in any negative way and worked on developing tolerance trying to live purposeful life. Her father was a physicist and was associated with United Nations agency on different fronts. The traces of singing and music started showing up in her teen days. Guitar was her best friend since the early times, and those early days can be traced back to performances at local clubs which set the foundations for bright prosperous future as a world-famous singer in times to come ahead. â€Å"Honey Love† (Retuya, n.p.) was one of the early performances of her school times. This was the first of many good performances that would follow up and eventually make her a standard hit singer in times to come. Her discography is quite rich and has never been interrupted for too long since 1960s going on with paced intervals. The 60s decade saw turbulent times on the United States of America political scene. With Vietnam War, Missile Crisis, Korean War, and endless internal and external unrest that had a direct effect on human rights, made an impact on her mind and, hence, made her think of using her strength in her field to convey ideas she was passionate about. Her songs’ contents soon took a turn for social events. The next few years saw a thick diversion to the anti-war movement, social rights, justice and equality. All this was conveyed through the strongest tool she possessed – her music. Her forte also stretched to the rights of women in mainstream as she advocated their equal participation and protested against exploitation in any way. At times she had to go through the challenges; a glimpse of it was seen when she was arrested for violating the law and refusing to pay the taxes in response to the Vietnam War, since she saw it as serio us violation of human rights by the United States on a global scale. Her autobiography that was released in the end of 60s shed light on her struggle, her critical and humane eye for the human sufferings and the imperialist pursuits of the government of her country and other superpowers worldwide. The autobiography was entitled â€Å"Day Break† and was the diary of a strong woman who dreamed of justice for everyone in spite of race, gender and nationality. To her best ability and input she established an Amnesty International branch in part of the country where she could manage and develop it. The efforts were not just limited to staying at one place and promoting the purpose of the foundation. She travelled far and wide and through her music and philanthropic pursuit spread the word and successfully conveyed the message of peace and harmony. Even in the 70s her music depicted the message of peace loud and clear. â€Å"Diamond and Rust†, one of her best known songs tha t was released in 1975, had the same tone and purpose to it.

Management in context Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Management in context - Assignment Example According to the authors of this article, in order to avoid the negative connotation that have become associated with the title ‘manager,’ they have resorted to titles like professional, entrepreneur or project leader. The author not only expresses strong feelings about the behavior of managers but also condemns it, thereby calling for changes to be made on the responsibilities that go with this title. The way every context that the authors looks at the title is simple spellbinding, which therefore calls for serious research and analysis on management as a discipline in order to correct the situation (Brocklehurst, Grey and Sturdy, 2010). Surprises in JA2 Academicians and intellectuals in our business school are increasingly joining the chorus of castigating and condemning management practices which is a complete departure from the initial support that they exhibited on the management practice as we know it today. This article explores managers’ obsession with the so-called intellectual slavery with roots in explicit ideas that senior personnel in organization acquired in their respective business schools. According to the authors, the MBA has become a means of acquiring appropriate ways of management to gain self confidence for legitimate social privileges in senior management (Sturdy, Brocklehurst, Winstanley, et al, 2006). They are taught that managers cannot be trusted hence should maximize shareholder’ wealth in order to reconcile their interest and that of their employers (shareholder) as a way of overcoming the agency problems. This is particularly evident in cases where opportunities for application of management practices in organization are viewed as inappropriate within organizations. Therefore, tight monitoring should be an appropriate strategy of preventing people from pursuing opportunistic behavior at the expense of practices that are of the common good to the organization. It is in the context of this disparity that a regulatory framework should be devised as a mean of safeguarding the interests of the suppliers, customers, employees and most importantly, shareholder. The article however, points out the need to explore academic knowledge beyond that of transforming ideas of the discursive content to identify towards ideas associated with effective work .I suggest business school should provide moral theories inspired to free them from immoral responsibility by ensuring centrally based education in the organization. The evidence In both articles, authors defend their work by use of books, journals, web pages and research and study institution. According to Sturdy, Brocklehurst, Winstanley, et al (2006), there is more concern on the de-legitimization of a company as institutions and management as a profession. This will be brought about partly by the acceptance of these thoughts when ignored as vital elements of management. Several scholars have recently voiced their concern about the current state of management research and pedagogy. While training people on organization design focusing on transaction cost economics, it is imperative for trainers to ensure that there is firm monitoring as well as control of people so as to curb opportunistic behavior (Brocklehurst, Grey & Sturdy, 2010). Comparison The term management generally refers to

Ahad Ha'am's Idea of the Spiritual Center Research Paper

Ahad Ha'am's Idea of the Spiritual Center - Research Paper Example He is also known as the founder of Cultural Zionism and strived for "a Jewish state and not merely a state of Jews.† He left an extensive impact on Hebrew culture, with his equivocal political imprint. The collection of his essays comprises of the four-volume ‘Al Parashat Derakhim (At the Crossroads; 1895–1914), remain among the most influential ever written by a modern Jewish intellectual. The leading figures of twentieth-century Judaism labelled him as a ‘prime inspiration’. They include Israel’s first president Chaim Weizmann, Hebrew University chancellor Judah Magnes, poet Hayim Nahman Bialik, Kabbalah scholar Gershom Scholem, and theologian Martin Buber. Ahad Ha’am's idea was his most famous; this was known as cultural Zionism. It was based on the establishment of small settlements in Palestine which aimed at resuscitating the Jewish spirit and culture in the modern world. According to Rabbi Dr. Louis Jacobs, Ginsberg saw what he cal led "absolute spirituality" (ruhani ha muhlat) as the very essence of Judaism, which had always set its face against material concepts of the divine. In the vision of cultural Zionism, a small number of Jewish cadres speaking Hebrew as well as who were well-versed in Jewish culture would settle in Palestine.

The Act of Union Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The Act of Union - Essay Example In eastern and Central Europe, many new nations were formed during the twentieth century and they ended up disregarding requirements in the Union agreements based upon relinquishing territorial membership.1 In 1707, the Act of Union was created so as to bind Scotland with the other nations constituting the United Kingdom. A number of other amendments were made to the Union with the first one being in 1801. Other Acts were also created to further specify the issues in the Act of Union and these included the Parliament Act, the people's Acts, the Scotland Act etc. In the Act of Union., Scotland is still recognised as a legal and political entity on is own. This is the reason some elements of the Scottish legal system are distinct to this part of the world. Additionally, this is the reason why Scotland is allowed to posses its own maritime system. On the other hand, there are certain things that Scotland as a state cannot institute. First of all, the Act of Union requires that the United Kingdom Parliament be the main body that legislates for the constituent countries. Additionally, the constitution also stipulates that only ministers from the UK parliament have the right to hold executive powers. In other words, the constitution stipulates that Scotland should operate under territorial rather than state-wide powers. The Act of Union is instrumental in spelling out the accountability of parliament to its people in the entire UK region. It also specifies how the Cabinet, Prime ministers and junior cabinet are to be structured. 2 In the legal system, the Act of Union allows Scottish courts to operate somewhat independently; however, it specifies that appeals must be directed to the Privy Council, the House of Lords or the UK Supreme court. It can therefore be said that the Act of Union acts as a check on the Scottish judiciary system. Through these territorial mechanisms, the Scottish legal system is kept under check because they are held accountable to these regional systems. If the Act of Union were to be disregarded, then chances are that some cases or issues that have been subject to appeal in the UK judicial system would be left unguarded and this may impede certain rights of the Scottish people. As the country is currently, the Act of Union has ensured that the Scottish judiciary is highly accountable and has thus improved its performance. The UK Parliament has been granted the ability to scrutinise the goings on in the government and the country at large. If the Act of Union were to be eliminated, then this function may be undermined. Scotland is in a position where it would require intense restructuring and revision in order to be able to carry out scrutiny of its government through an independent Parliament. The Act of Union is also relevant in terms of describing some of the rights and duties of employees or companies that operate within other borders within the United Kingdom. This constitution clearly states that the UK government is the one with the powers to scrutinise or enhance accountability within corporate bodies operating in the UK. Consequently, the Act of Union is important in preserving these rights. It specifies issues such as terms and conditions of employment, pay or compensation,

International Relations Theory Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

International Relations Theory - Assignment Example This calls for less or no controls from the concerned governments thus eliminating government controls. The consumers are also free to choose the products and services they want from anywhere in the world. The international market exhibits such trends. This makes it possible for many countries to prefer capitalism to other ideologies such as communism. For those two reasons, capitalism and universal consumer culture sets a stage for liberal internationalism where individual choice to sell or buy is respected. The final engine is the democratization of governments across the world. Democracy entails self-rule forming a government of the people by the people where majority choice rules. The enjoyment of rights and freedoms that are seen in democratic governments constitute liberal practices in political structures (Marks, 1-19). Democratization works best if the state is ‘strong’. What does that mean? The formation of state is entrenched in there being a unified civil society and as such, the state remains imperative if civility in society is to be sustained. The people in a state do try their best not to harm the rights of others while they exercise theirs. This kind of scenario presents democracy where the rights and freedoms of others are respected and upheld. Without the exercise of upholding other people’s rights and freedoms and letting the people make their choice, there would not be democracy. For people to engage in democratic practices, there must be a civil society that is stable, sensitive to the rights and freedoms of others, and preservation of liberty, property and life of the people is upheld. For the stability of society, the state needs to operate within the limits of natural laws and civil laws. The need to become democratized emanates from the fact that people within a state demand that single interests be eliminated and the tyranny be checked for the b enefit of majority. A strong state has all the mechanism needed to establish civil obedience, upholds rights and freedoms of the people, the faults of the civil society can be corrected, and the state has the capacity and necessary authority to act that way. Strong civil society, stable governments, and strong civil structures in terms of institutions are better recipes for democratization as opposed to anarchy. Anarchy breeds tyranny. Democracy is constituted when limits to power is realized, mutual relations between the state and civil society are established, rule of law is upheld, constitutionalism promoted, and freedom and rights of all people are equally promoted through democratic participation, thus a strong state with functional democracy (Marks 1-19). What do realists think about ‘China’s rise’ and its implications for international order? The rise of China will transform the East Asia and this influence is set to spread to other parts of the world. Chi na’s take on international matters will be stronger and will bring about a huge drama. The rise of china is seen towards the direction of superpower

Stock Options at eBay Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2250 words

Stock Options at eBay - Case Study Example With a diverse and passionate community of individuals and small businesses, eBay offers an online platform where millions of items are traded each day. It was started in 1995 with one employee and it has grown to employ thousands of employees today. Any company's future success and profits depend on their employees and the senior management. Even eBay feels that their success was dependant on their key management and their technical staff. As such eBay tries to retain their key personnel officers for the long-term to gain more profits, but they don't have any long term agreements with employees and they don't even maintain life insurance policies on their key employees. eBay attains more profits in land based auction businesses and those are dependent on specialists and senior management as these individuals have established good relations with sellers who transfer property for sale at auction. As the company is growing and the number of employees is also. The company has to attract more people and has to train them and retain them in the company for the long term, particularly the employees who are highly skilled, technical, and m anagerial. Stock options issued by a company allow the employee to buy specific amount of the company's stock at a certain price after a set period of time (the vesting period). Stock options are useful to align the interests of the employee with those of the company. Since the stock options will be profitable only if the company's stock goes up, the employee has incentive to work hard and ensure the success of the company. Also, since the options can only exercised after a certain period of time, the employee has to stay with the company. This promotes employee retention. Furthermore, by giving out stock options, the company can reduce other forms of compensation and reduce its immediate cash expenses. In this way, stock options are a better method of compensation compared to cash or stock. Let's take an example: Let's say you are hired by eBay and they offer you options to buy 10,000 shares of eBay stock at $10 within the next three years. This stock option gives you the right to buy 10,000 shares of eBay stock at exactly $10 after three years. Let's say after three years eBay stock is at $15, you can exercise your stock options, buy 10,000 shares for $100,000 and sell them on them for $150,000 making a $50,000 profit. Now, let's say eBay's price after three years is $5, your options would be worthless. Thus the options incentivize you to work hard to ensure eBay is successful as measure by a stock price greater than $10. Also, you are required to stay for at least three years to profit from your options. From this example, it is clear how stock options align the interests of employees with those of the company and promote retention. The options did not also cost the company upfront. Neither cash nor stock has all these advantages, and hence eBay compensates employees with stock options. Question 2: What are at least four benefits of choosing stock options over other compensation methods Compensation packages are a means by which companies can achieve several different goals related to recruitment,

Types of Non-Verbal Communication Essay Example for Free

Types of Non-Verbal Communication Essay It is amazing that 93% of our means of communicating is non-verbal of which 55% are by hand gestures, body posture and facial expressions. Aside from the three mentioned, other non-verbal signals are: touch, eye contact, personal space or distance, tone of voice which is different from the actual speaking, and personal appearance which includes the clothes and the color and also the hairstyle as they give a clue on the mood of the person. With all these non-verbal forms of communication, it will not be surprising at all if one can conduct an entire meeting in non-verbal mode. When everyone is seated in a conference room, the Chair begins by calling the meeting to order. He can do so in a non-verbal way. With a tap on the table, a slight nod of his head, he directs his eyes on the secretary to read the Minutes of the last meeting. He maintains eye contact with all those present, especially the person speaking. This is to acknowledge and assure that person that he is listening and is interested in what he has to say. When the Chair’s tone is earnest and firm, he is telling the Body that the issue must be given top priority. It has been observed that two people engaged in conversation tended to mirror the other’s position. When the Chair matches the body posturing of a proponent, he is very likely to give his approval. When he sits back, plays with his pen, frowns or pouts his lips, he is having some reservations on the proposal. Occasional nodding of his head while maintaining eye contact with the people in the room is his way of keeping the discussion going. A slight raise of his brows and a brief nod at the direction of a person is an invitation for comment. At the end of the meeting, a slight tap on the shoulder is like saying â€Å"Nice job! † Scientific study notes that there are more nerves between the brain and the hands than anywhere else in the body. The activities of the arms, hands and fingers are largely because of the workings of the mind. Non-verbal signals are exactly what the mind wants to say. References Wagner, K. V.. (2008). Types of Non-Verbal Communication. About. Com:Psychology. Retrieved Frebruary 15, 2008, from http://psychology. about. com/od/nonverbalcommunication/a/nonverbaltypes. htm Riding, C. (2005). Establishing and Maintaining Relationships with Customers Retrieved February 15, 2008, from http://www. rsc-necotland. ac. uk/ie/Relationships_with_Customers/Establishing%20and%20maintaining%20relationships%20with%20customers%20version%202-130. htm

The inter relationship between firm growth and profitability

The inter relationship between firm growth and profitability Abstract There is a widespread presumption that there is a close relationship between firm growth and firm profitability. However, most of the past studies on firm growth and profitability have been conducted without mutual associations. Only a few studies, thus far, have examined the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability and the results have been inconsistent. The reason for the inconsistency is mainly due to the lag structure of the models in each study. To address the issue, this study conducted panel unit-root tests on firm growth and profitability separately and then made appropriate models using dynamic panel system GMM estimators. Through the analyses of the models, this study found that in restaurant firms the prior years profitability had a positive effect on the growth rate of the current year, but the current and prior years growth rates had a negative effect on the current years profitability. This outcome implies that profit creates growth but the growth impede s profitability in the restaurant industry. More implications are also discussed in this paper. Keywords: Firm growth; Profitability; Panel unit-root test; Dynamic panel system GMM 1. Introduction The dynamics of firm growth and profitability (or profit rate) is an important issue for industrial practitioners as well as academic researchers (Goddard, McMillan and Wilson, 2006). Theoretically, if firm growth rate is unrelated to firm size and prior growth rate, then firm growth follows random walk and the variance of firm size can increase indefinitely. This is known as the Law of Proportionate Effect (LPE). This stochastic growth process implies unlimited industry growth in the long run. However, if growth rate is inversely related to firm size, firm growth would converge in the long run. On the other hand, Mueller (1977) claimed that firm profitability converges at a certain level due to market competition, which is referred to as Persistence of Profit (POP). The POP literature argues that firm entry and exit are sufficiently free to quickly eliminate any abnormal profit and that the profitability of all firms tends to converge toward the long-run average value. However, Goddard, Molyneux and Wilson (2004) stated, even though it is generally presumed that firm growth and profitability effect each other, that firm growth and profitability are not necessarily connected. Overall, the impact and direction of this relationship remains ambiguous. The ambiguity is associated with various econometric issues. First, due to the endogeneity it is difficult to capture a clear causality and direction between them. Further, if firm growth and profitability time lags are incorporated into the models the endogenous relationship becomes more complicated due to the unknown effects of different time lags. Recently, there have been a couple of attempts to investigate the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability (Coad, 2007; Davidsson, Steffens, and Fitzsimmons, 2009). Although it is worth exploring the relationship, the results of the studies turned out to be inconsistent. In the previous studies, two types of methodologies were used: panel unit-root test and dynamic panel system GMM estimator. The panel unit-root test is appropriate for testing the convergence hypotheses of firm growth and profit rates. It is also useful for finding the significance of the lag term in a simple autoregressive model, but it is difficult to control the endogenous effect in the model. Moreover, the panel unit-root test cannot directly examine the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability. Dynamic panel system GMM estimator can control for endogeneity and test the inter-relationship, but determining the number of lag terms remains ambiguous. Thus, in order to address the analysis problems in the previous literature, we first employed the panel unit-root test and subsequently made a testable model for the dynamic panel system GMM estimator. Through those analyses, we intended to investigate the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability under various time lags. More specifically, the objectives of this study were: 1) to examine the panel unit-root test on the series of firm growth and profitability separately and to find an appropriate lag structure; and 2) to make an appropriate model to investigate the inter-relationship between them through a vector autoregression (VAR) model via dynamic panel system GMM estimator. We used restaurant firms for the study sample and, thus, the results are useful for understanding the dynamics of firm growth and profitability in the restaurant industry. In the following section, we summarize prior LPE and POP literature and present the potential inter-relationships between firm growth and profitability. Next section outlines the details of the study methodology. The following section shows the results of panel unit-root test and dynamic panel system GMM regarding the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability. Finally, we conclude this study with managerial implications and suggestions for further studies. 2. Literature Review 2.1. Law of Proportionate Effect (LPE) and Persistence Of Profit (POP) The notion that firm growth rate is independent of firm size and past growth rate is known as the Law of Proportionate Effect (LPE) (Gibrat, 1931). According to the LPE, firm growth happens by chance and thus past growth is not a reliable predictor of future firm growth (Goddard et al., 2006). Hence, deterministic factors of firm growth (i.e., managerial capacity, innovation and efficiency) are randomly distributed across firms. However, recent empirical studies have claimed that there is an inverse relationship between firm growth and firm size, rejecting the LPE (Hall, 1987; Evans, 1987; Dunne and Huges, 1994; Geroski and Gugler, 2004). Most empirical studies of LPE used cross-sectional regression models through a simple autoregressive model (for example, AR(1)), but the models were criticized due to their arbitrariness in choosing lag terms. Recently, Chen and Lu (2003) and Goddard et al. (2006) tested the LPE using panel unit-root models because the LPE assumes non-stationarity i n the time series analysis. The benefit of the panel unit-root test on LPE lies in its ability to test a long series effect in non-stationarity, while the weakness of the test is its inability to include control variables that may affect firm growth (i.e., prior profitability, leverage, and market competition). Conversely, researchers on persistence of profit (POP) argue that firm profitability converges at a certain level across all firms and no firms could achieve an above average profit rate in the long run. Mueller (1977) developed the deterministic time-series model for testing the POP and subsequently (Mueller 1986) demonstrated profit rate convergence through an autoregressive model. Since Mueller (1986), most studies on POP have adopted the autoregressive model. However, Goddard et al. (2006) stated that the typical methodology for POP estimated individual effects and autoregressive coefficients for each firm, so the estimated coefficients were often unreliable and the testing power was low. Hence, Goddard et al. (2006) tested the profit rate convergence hypothesis using a panel unit-root test in order to find the stationarity in a profit rate time series. 2.2. The inter-relationship between firm growth rate and profitability (or profit rate) As noted earlier, it is widely believed that firm growth and profit rates are related to each other (Goddard et al., 2004). Some prior studies have suggested that profit rate has a positive impact on growth rate. Alchians (1950) theoretical study argued that fitter firms survive and grow, but less viable firms lose their market share and exit through the evolutionary selection mechanism. Thus, if profit rate reflects the degree of fitness, it is possible to predict that profitable firms will grow. Further, according to the financing constraint hypothesis retained profits can be readily used for investment, whereas firms with low profitability could not grow even if they have positive growth opportunities. This is also consistent with the pecking-order theory, which claims that managers prefer internal capital to external capital, such as debt and equity financing. However, the influence of growth rate on profitability is inconsistent in theories and empirical studies. A Classical Ricardian perspective claims that if a firm shows high profit rates it would grow to exploit additional growth opportunities that are less profitable but still create additional profits. This notion implies three things. First, the profit rate is converges at zero from a long-term perspective. Second, high profit rates have a positive impact on growth rates until the profit rate is zero. Finally, firm growth has a negative influence on profit rate. Along similar lines, the Neoclassical view argues that firms first exploit their most profitable growth opportunities and then consider less profitable opportunities until the marginal profit on the last growth opportunity is equal to zero. Consequently, profitable firms maximize their overall level of profits through profitable growth opportunities but experience a decrease in profit rates. Even though this argument exclud es market competition, it theoretically explains the relationship between firm growth and profit rates. However, managerial growth-maximization hypothesis under market competition (Marris, 1964; Mueller, 1972) claims that the managerial objective of a firm is to maximize growth rather than profit. Thus, this hypothesis proposed that growth and profits are in a competitive relationship with each other, which suggests the possibility that growth victimizes profit. Nevertheless, there are a number of theoretical claims that growth rate has a positive impact on profit rate. First, the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law in economics (Kaldor, 1966; Verdoorn, 1949) claims that growth increases productivity and in turn the enhanced productivity increases profit rates. This notion is consistent with scale economies (Gupta, 1981). Thus, because firm growth contributes to an increase in firm size, the larger size could gain benefits from an economy of scale and in turn this affects profit enhancement. That is, growth can help increase profitability. However, empirical studies on the effects of growth rate on profit rate have not always been supportive. Capon, Farley and Hoenig (1990) reported that firm growth is related to high financial performance, but it was significant only in some industries. Chandler and Jansen (1992) and Mendelson (2000) reported a significant positive correlation between sales growth and profit rates, whereas Markman and Gartner (2002) found no significant relationship between growth and profitability. Furthermore, Reid (1995) claimed growth had a negative effect on profitability. The relationship between growth and profit rates are more complicated when time lags of the two variables are considered. Only a few empirical studies have considered the link between growth and profit rates using various time lag terms. Goddard et al. (2004) found profitability to be important for future growth in European banks. Conversely, through panel data estimates of French manufacturing firms Coad (2007) found that the opposite direction of causation (i.e., growth to profitability) might be true. Both Goddard et al. (2004) and Coad (2007) investigated the relationship between firm growth and profit rates with vector autoregressive models using dynamic panel system GMM estimators. The difference between the two studies was that Goddard et al. (2004) used a one-year time lag but Coad (2007) incorporated three-year time lags in the analysis. More specifically, Goddard et al. (2004) found that a one-year lagged profit rate had a positive significant effect on the current-years gr owth rate, but a one-year lagged growth rate did not have a significant impact on the current-years profit rates. However, Coad (2007) showed that two- and three-years lagged profit rates have a positive significant influence on the current-years growth rate and that the current-years growth rate was positively significant in terms of the current-years profit rates. As noted, Goddard et al. (2004) and Coad (2007) reported opposing empirical results, which could be attributed to the difference in lag length. Considering the scarcity of past studies on the growth-profitability relationship and the problems with analytic methods, there is a need for a study that can verify this important relationship in a more holistic way. Hence, we intended to address the above research need in this study. A detailed outline of how the study was conducted follows in the next section. 3. Data and methodology The data used in the analysis was collected from the COMPUSTAT database using SIC 5812 (eating places). The data covers fiscal years 1978 to 2007 for U.S. restaurant firms. Profit rate (or profitability) was measured as net income divided by net sales and growth rate was gauged as the difference between the current and prior years net sales divided by the prior years net sales. After deleting severe outliers in the two main variables, growth rate and profit rate, this study used 2,927 firm-year observations for the analysis. As previously indicated, this study first conducted panel unit-root tests on growth and profit rates separately. The Dickey-Fuller unit-root test was set up for testing the stationarity of a time series. For example, if à Ã¢â‚¬  1 is equal to a unit in equation (1), the series is non-stationary. Equation (1) could be expressed as equation (2) by subtracting Yt-1 on both sides. Yt = à Ã¢â‚¬  1Yt-1 + ÃŽÂ µt (1) ΆYt = ÃŽÂ ³Yt-1 + ÃŽÂ µt (ÃŽÂ ³ = à Ã¢â‚¬  1 1) (2) Equation (2) above is a simplified Dickey-Fuller unit-root test (DF test). The null hypothesis of a DF test is that ÃŽÂ ³ equals zero and the alternative hypothesis is ÃŽÂ ³ p ΆYt = ÃŽÂ ³Yt-1 + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒ Ã¢â‚¬  iΆYt-i + ÃŽÂ µt (ÃŽÂ ³ = à Ã¢â‚¬  1 1) (3) i=1 However, the data structure of this study was an unbalanced panel. Thus, equation (3) could be expressed as a panel setting following equation (4): p ΆYi,t = ÃŽÂ ³Y i,t-1 + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒ Ã¢â‚¬  iΆY i,t-i + ÃŽÂ µ i,t (ÃŽÂ ³ = à Ã¢â‚¬  1 1) (4) i=1 Equation (4) is the testable model for the panel unit-root test in this study. A few studies have developed panel unit-root tests (Im, Pesaran and Shin, 2003; Levin, Lin and Chu, 2002; Maddala and Wu, 1999). However, in the case of an unbalanced panel setting, the Fisher test is the only one available. It combines the p-values from N independent unit root tests, as developed by Maddala and Wu (1999). Based on the p-values of individual unit root tests, Fishers test assumes that all series are non-stationary under the null hypothesis against the alternative that at least one series in the panel is stationary. Unlike other panel unit-root tests, Fishers test does not require a balanced panel. Thus, this study conducted Fishers test on the growth and profit rates and selected an appropriate lag length in ADF formula. After selecting the proper lag length in ADF formula, it was transformed as follows: p ΆYi,t = ÃŽÂ ³Y i,t-1 + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒ Ã¢â‚¬  iΆY i,t-i + ÃŽÂ µ i,t i=1 = ÃŽÂ ³Y i,t-1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  1ΆY i,t-1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  2ΆY i,t-2 + à Ã¢â‚¬  3ΆY i,t-3 + à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ + à Ã¢â‚¬  pΆY i,t-p + ÃŽÂ µ i,t = ÃŽÂ ³Y i,t-1 + à Ã¢â‚¬  1(Y i,t-1 Y i,t-2) + à Ã¢â‚¬  2(Y i,t-2 Y i,t-3) + à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ + à Ã¢â‚¬  p(Y i,t-p Y i,t-(p+1)) + ÃŽÂ µ i,t = (ÃŽÂ ³ + à Ã¢â‚¬  1) Y i,t-1 + (à Ã¢â‚¬  2 à Ã¢â‚¬  1) Y i,t-2 + (à Ã¢â‚¬  3 à Ã¢â‚¬  2) Y i,t-3 + à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ + (à Ã¢â‚¬  p à Ã¢â‚¬  p-1)Y i,t-p à Ã¢â‚¬  pY i,t-(p+1) + ÃŽÂ µ i,t (5) Consequently, equation (5) could be expressed as follows: Yi,t = (1 + ÃŽÂ ³ + à Ã¢â‚¬  1) Y i,t-1 + (à Ã¢â‚¬  2 à Ã¢â‚¬  1) Y i,t-2 + (à Ã¢â‚¬  3 à Ã¢â‚¬  2) Y i,t-3 + à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ + (à Ã¢â‚¬  p à Ã¢â‚¬  p-1)Y i,t-p à Ã¢â‚¬  pY i,t-(p+1) + ÃŽÂ µ i,t (6) Thus, if the panel unit-root test chooses p lags in ADF formula, it could be transformed to AR(p+1) model. This AR(p+1) model was then used for the dynamic panel system GMM estimator. Also, since the purpose of this study was to investigate the inter-relationship between firm growth and profitability, this study adopted the vector autoregression (VAR) model to find the reciprocal relationship between growth rates and profit rates. p+1 q+1 p+1 SGi,t = ÃŽÂ ²0 + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ·iSGi,t-i + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒ Ã¢â€š ¬iPRi,t-i + ÃŽÂ ²1Salei,t-i + ÃŽÂ ²2LEVi,t-i + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ¶iΆDMAi,t-i i=1 i=1 i=0 + DYeart + ÃŽÂ µi,t Model 1 q+1 p+1 PRi,t = ÃŽÂ ²0 + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒ Ã¢â€š ¬iPRi,t-i + à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬ËœÃƒÅ½Ã‚ ·iGRi,t-i + ÃŽÂ ²1Salei,t-i + ÃŽÂ ²2LEVi,t-i + ÃŽÂ ²3MarketSharei,t-i i=1 i=0 + DYeart + ÃŽÂ µi,t Model 2 SGi,t is the sales growth rate and PRi,t is the profit rate at time t for firm i. Salei,t is the net sales at time t for firm i. We also included control variables in both models. In the LPE literature, recent studies showed that prior firm size is inversely related with current growth rate (Evans, 1987; Hall, 1987; Geroski and Gugler, 2004). On the other hand, Baumol (1959) provided evidence that firm profitability increases with firm size, while Amato and Wilder (Kwangmin!!, Year and reference?) showed that no relationship exists between firm size and profit rate. Finally, Samuels and Smyth (1968) stated that profit rate and firm size are inversely related. Thus, we included the prior years net sales as a firm size variable in both models to control for size effect. Debt leverage (LEVi,t) was also incorporated in both models as a control variable, which was calculated as total debt divided by total assets. Theories of optimal capital structure based on the agency costs of managerial discretion suggest that the adverse impact of leverage on growth increases firm value by preventing managers from taking on poor projects (Jensen,1986; Stulz, 1990). Opler and Titman (1994) empirically found that sales growth is lower in firms with higher leverage. Thus, the influence of debt leverage on growth could be negative. However, the prior literature on the relationship between debt leverage and profit rate, has shown mixed results. Debt affects profitability positively according to Hurdle (1974), but negatively according to Hall and Weiss (1967) and Gale (1972). Debt could also yield a disciplinary effect under the free cash flow hypothesis (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990). Firms with high debt leverage can reduce wasteful investment opportunities and increase f irm performance, suggesting a positive relationship between debt leverage and profit rates. However, using debt can increase conflicts between debt and equity holders. Equity holders encourage managers to undertake risky projects because the benefits are transferred only to equity holders (Stiglitz and Weiss, 1981). Thus equity holders tend to support the use of debt. However, high uses of debt could deteriorate firm profitability by taking on overly risky projects. The effect of leverage on profit rate may not be uni-directional. Consequently, we incorporated leverage as a control variable due to its important potential effects on profitability. In the growth rate equation (Model 1), we incorporated mergers and acquisitions (MA) dummy variables from time t to t-(p+1) because MA execution abnormally increases growth rates. MA executions were identified from the SDC Platinum database. In the profitability equation (Model 2), we included a market share variable, which was calculated as the net sales of firm i at time t divided by the sum of net sales at time t. According to Buzzell, Gale and Sultan (1975), market share had a positive impact on firm profitability. Because a larger market share means stronger market power, firms with large market shares could have the power to control market prices and be in a better position to negotiate with their suppliers. Thus, a positive relationship between market share and profit rates is expected. Because the current years growth could affect the current years profit rate, following Coad (2007), we included the current years growth rate in Model 2. Statistically, ordinary least square (OLS) regression requires that the right-hand side variables should be independent of the error term. However, if there is a bi-directional causation between dependent (left-hand side) variables and explanatory (right-hand side) variables, this condition is not satisfied and thus OLS regression produces biased and inconsistent estimates. This endogeneity problem could be solved by choosing appropriate instrumental variables, which are correlated with the explanatory variables but not the error term. This means that the instrumental variables should be exogenous but if they are endogenous, the equation would be over-identified. However, if the instrumental variables are weakly correlated with the explanatory variables, which is called a weak instrument, the estimates are biased and inconsistent. Arellano and Bond (1991) proposed the GMM estimator for panel data, which could control the potential endogenous explanatory variables. This method uses the first difference model, which eliminates the time-invariant firm-specific effect, and instrumental variables for the endogenous variables were generated by lags of their own level. However, if the lagged level instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variables, there could be a finite sample bias in estimators. In particular, if the variable series tends to show a highly persistent profit rate series (Mueller, 1977), this weak correlation between lagged level instruments and endogenous explanatory variables is problematic. Arellano and Bover (1995) and Brundell and Bond (1998) developed a dynamic panel GMM estimator that estimated with level-equation and difference equation, which is called a system GMM. Consequently, the dynamic panel system GMM estimator has better asymptotic and finite sample propertie s than the one used by Arellano and Bond (1991). Thus, this study analyzed the proposed models using the dynamic panel system GMM estimator, which produces unbiased and consistent estimates after controlling for endogeneity and firm-specific effects even when the sample period is short. Even though the full sample period of this study is 30 years, the panel structure is not balanced due to the entry and exit of firms. Bludell and Bond (1998) suggested the minimum requirement for panel length as T à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥ 3. Thus, we excluded firms which did not exist at least three years in the sample period. Another requirement was that there is no serial correlation of the second order error terms. We conducted the serial correlation test for panel GMM estimators developed by Arellano and Bond (1991). In order to test the exogeneity of instrumental variables, we used the Hansen test instead of the Sargan test because the Sargan test is not robust enough to detect heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation (Roodman, 2006). Finally, as Roodman (2006) suggested, we included year dummies in the models and estimated the system GMM by two-step estimator because the two-step estimator is robust enough to detect the heteroskedasticity. For comparisons with the dynamic panel system GMM estimator, we conducted ordinary least square (OLS) and fixed-effect regression. 4. Results 4.1. Panel unit-root test for firm growth and profit rates As indicated, we conducted the panel unit-root test developed by Maddala and Wu (1999) using Fishers test, which assumes that all series are non-stationary under the null hypothesis. Equation (4) was tested on both growth and profit rates. The results are presented in Table 1. For the series of sales growth and profit rates, lag(4) was justified. Thus, the law of proportionate effect hypothesis was rejected but the persistence of profit hypothesis was validated. The results indicate that the growth rates are serially correlated and the profit rates are convergent. The purpose of the panel unit-root tests on growth and profit rates was to examine the stationarity of the two series and to make an appropriate model for the dynamic panel system GMM estimator. As shown earlier, if the panel unit-root test justifies p lags, the ADF formula could be transformed to AR(p+1) model. Consequently, the testable model is AR(5) for both growth and profit rates. Based on the lag length from the pane l unit-root test, we excluded any firm that existed less than five years in testing the dynamic panel system GMM estimator. Then, we tested the proposed models using AR(5) in order to identify the inter-relationship between firm growth and profit rates in various time lag structures. (Insert Table 1 Here) 4.2. Descriptive statistics and scatter plots of growth and profit rates Table 2 shows the descriptive statistics of the major variables of this study. The average sales of the sampled restaurant firms was 541.8 million dollars and the average growth rate in sales was 16.3%. The average profit rate (return on sales) was 1.3% and total debt rate (debt leverage) was 61.3%. Thus, the figures show that the restaurant industry has a high growth rate, but its profitability is not positive and it uses more debt than equity. (Insert Table 2 Here) Before conducting the dynamic panel system GMM estimator, we checked the scatter plots between growth and profit rates using various time lags. As Coad (2007) indicated, the non-parametric scatter plots of growth and profit rates gave us a visual appreciation of the underlying phenomenon. Thus, before testing the quantitative relationship, we can obtain useful information via scatter plots. Figure 1 shows the scatter plots of growth at time t (Y-axis) and growth rates at time t-1 to t-5 (X-axis) for all samples. Except for the first plot (growth rate time t versus t-1), all other plots seem to show no relationship. The plots, excluding the first plot, look like a cloud shape but are a bit scattered horizontally. Based on the plot for growth rate time t and t-1, the current and prior years growth rates are positively correlated. However, Figure 1 represents all firms, including MA firms. Apparently, firms with MA can experience abnormally high growth rates compared with non-MA firms. Thus, we checked the same scatter plots after excluding MA firms, as presented in Figure 2. The relationship between current and prior years growth rate is clearly positive and growth rate at t-2 also looks positive on current years growth rate. However, the earlier years growth rates (i.e., t-3, t-4 and t-5) appear to have no relationship with the current years growth rate. Figure 3 shows scatter plots of profit rate at time t (Y-axis) and profit rates at time t-1 to t-5 (X-axis). Interestingly, clear heteroskedasticity is detected in the relationship between them. Thus, the usage of the two-step estimator in the dynamic panel system GMM estimator is justified by Figure 3. In all of the scatter plots there is a tendency toward a positive relationship between current and prior profit rates. (Insert Figures 1, 2, and 3 Here) Figure 4 shows scatter plots of profit rate at time t (Y-axis) and growth rates at time t-1 to t-5 (X-axis). In all plots, points were spread horizontally. It seems that there is no effect of growth rate on profit rate. Surprisingly, the scatter plot of current growth rates appears to have no relationship with current profit rate. On the other hand, Figure 5 shows that profit rates clearly have a positive influence on the current growth rate. The majority of the points were spread vertically. The scatter plots show that prior profit rates seems to have a positive influence on current growth rates, but the influence of prior growth rates on current profit rates was not found. (Insert Figures 4 and 5 Here) 4.3. Results from Dynamic panel system GMM estimator Tables 3 and 4 show the results of the proposed models explained in the methodology section. Even though yearly dummies were not reported in Tables 3 and 4, they were included in the models. As shown in Table 3, the prior years growth rate at time t-1 was found to be positively significant on current growth rates in all three regressions (OLS, fixed-effect and system GMM). However, the directions and significances of the coefficients of the other prior growth rate terms varied across the three models. As explained earlier, however, the system GMM is the most appropriate model for this study due to the endogeneity and time invariant firm-specific effect and the results of the OLS and fixed-effect regression models were used simply for the purpose of comparison. Goddard et al. (2004) reported that the prior years (time t-1) growth rate was positive but not significant. It is difficult to directly compare their results with ours due to the difference in the lag length structure. Interestingly, our study showed that growth rates at time t-1 and t-5 were positively significant on current growth rates, but growth rates at time t-2 and t-4 were negatively significant. These results suggest that short-term and long-term prior growth rates have a positive impact, but mid-term prior growth rates have a negative influence on current growth rates. Our primary interest in Model 1 was the effect of the prior years profit rates on current growth rates. The system GMM results show that profit rates at time t-1 and t-5 were positively significant. The magnitude of the coefficient of profit rate at time t-5 was small, meaning that the positive impact of long-term prior profit rates on current growth rates is small. However, the prior years (time t-1) profit rate has a positively significant effect on current growth and the magnitude of the coefficient is large. Coads (2007) study showed that profit rates at time t-1 to t-3 were all positive but the prior years (time t-1) profit rate was not significant. Coad (2007) used an AR(3) model and thus a direct comparison of ours to Coads (2007) is not possible. Yet it is clear that the direction of the coefficients were very similar. Overall, our study results provide evidence that recently profitable firms may grow faster. In terms of the relationship between prior years firm size and current growth rate, all three results show a negative coefficient but the negative effect was significant only in OLS. Also, debt leverage had a negative effect on current growth rates but the system GMM result was not significant. Additionally, all serial correlation tests were not significant, showing that there was no serial correlation problem. Also, the over-identification tests were not significant, meaning that our instruments were not endogenous and the estimates were reliable. (Insert Table 3 Here) Table 4 shows the results of the profitability equation (Model 2). The results of the system GMM shows that profit rates at time t-1, t-2 and t-5 were had positively significant effect on current profit rates. However, profit rates at time t-3 and t-4 were negatively significant. The results suggest that short-term and long-term prior profit rates have a positive impact on current profit rates, but mid-term prior profit rates have a negative influence on current profit rates. Similarly, Goddard et al.s (2004) results showed that the prior years (time t-1) profit rate was positive and significant in its AR(1) model. Table 4 also presents the effect of the prior years growth rates on current profit rates were negatively significant in time t and t-1. Unlike our results, Goddard et al. (2004) found that the prior years growth rate was posi

Issues in the Hospitality Industry

Issues in the Hospitality Industry November 2006 At the recent ISHC Annual Conference held in Miami, Florida, ISHC members participated in a series of roundtable discussions to identify the ISHC Top Ten Issues in the Hospitality Industry for 2007. This year the debate included in-depth discussions on over 100 different issues with 27 making the ballot for the final vote by the members. Ultimately, the following Top Ten Issues were identified as ones that can be expected to potentially have the greatest impact on the industry in 2007. ISHC Top Ten Issues in the Hospitality Industry for 2007 Labor Skills Shortages Growing shortage of qualified skilled employees Construction Costs Escalation of construction renovation costs Technology Lightening speed of changes keeping up Changing Demographics Their Impact on Travel Trends Shift in baby-boomers to gen X Future of Hotel Profits Balancing escalating expenses with the need to increase rates Branding Mitigating consumer confusion over brand proliferation and investor concerns over cross brand impact Distribution Revolution Keeping up with rapidly changing playing field Travel Restrictions And their impact on the travel industry Global Emerging Markets Are travel patterns changing Capital Availability Will investor and lender confidence continue #1 ISHC Top Ten Issue LABOR SKILLS SHORTAGE The problem of attracting and retaining qualified workers, once an issue only in an isolated number of markets, is increasingly becoming a global challenge.. Demography, wage levels, failure to adequately address worker satisfaction and a reputation for long hours and low pay are all cited as contributing factors. Creative hospitality professionals have begun to develop innovative strategies for capturing and keeping high quality workers. Why cant we find good people? Its become a global concern, the number one issue confronting our industry. Here are some of the causes: Demographics Population growth rates have been slowing in Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere for decades so the number of workers leaving the workforce now exceeds those that are entering. The aging workforce moving into retirement is creating a huge void that can only be expected to grow larger going forward. Lagging Wage Rates. Long criticized for paying salaries and wages below those common in other industries, hospitality companies are increasingly finding it difficult to attract and retain qualified candidates willing to attract standard wages. Industry Reputation Like it or not, the hospitality industry has not done enough to earn a reputation as a top career choice for college graduates. Notorious for long hours, night and weekend shifts our industry has Gen-Xers and Gen-Yers seeking other careers with a perceived higher quality of life and better wages. De-emphasis on Training and Worker Satisfaction Following the worldwide dip in demand that followed 9/11, many hotel companies failed to fully restore training and worker enrichment programs that marked the 1980s and 90s. This comes at a time when lodging brands are increasingly adding amenities and services in order to differentiate themselves from competitors. What can we do about it? As an industry, we need to work together to develop strategies for rethinking and rehabilitating our industrys image as an exciting and rewarding career choice. There was a time not too long ago when people joined the hospitality industry for its glamour. Globally, we need to share best practices for training and retention and make industry sponsored educational programs more readily available to employees at every organizational level. Industry organizations including the International Hotel and Restaurant Association and the American Hotel and Lodging Association Educational Institute provide excellent training libraries as well as web based training programs. Additionally, there are some outstanding independent firms that specialize in human resource training and development-some of which also offer excellent proprietary training materials. Meanwhile, following are some thoughts to share regarding potential opportunities for hotels to meet the labor challenge? Grow Your Own. Hotel companies need to develop internal programs to create attractive career paths so that potential candidates see employment as a professional development opportunity with real potential for advancement. Recruiting for entry level positions is easier when the recruiter can outline a career path and can point to managers who have worked their way up from line positions. Marriott has been doing this better than anyone for decades. Guest Workers. The U.S. and many other nations offer guest worker programs that can provide seasonal workers for up to ten months. One well-known US resort brings over two hundred workers from Jamaica each spring to fill various positions under the U.S. H-2B Visa program. These individuals stay through the resort season, with many returning year after year. Similarly, Disney uses the J-1 Visa program to bring young college graduates from all over the world for 18-month internships in entry level supervisory and guest contact positions at its US hotels and theme parks. Pay for Productivity. Hospitality is a labor intensive business and automation opportunities are often limited. Reconfiguring work process and then sharing the benefits of increased productivity can have positive results. One hotel General Manager provides a cash bonus split among the workers in his hotels laundry department for reaching a monthly productivity goal calculated in pounds processed per labor hour. At another hotel Room Attendants are offered a menu of options to receive additional pay for increased productivity so long as strict quality guidelines are met. Job Enlargement. Cross-training and cross-utilization arent new concepts, but theyre good ones. One hotel company of note has a certification program for all its employees. Employees are expected to master the skills for their own positions, but receive pay raises when theyve become certified in other jobs. These multi-talented employees can fill in where needed in peak times and have their own horizons broadened through cross departmental training. In todays environment, operators are increasingly finding they must compete for workers as hard as they compete for customers. Developing a positive work environment with real opportunities for advancement, combined with creative strategies for recruiting and improving employee productivity will all be increasingly essential skills as the workforce continues to shrink in the foreseeable future. # 2 ISHC Top Ten Issue CONSTRUCTION COSTS All construction costs and the costs for furnishings, fixtures and equipment (FFE) will continue to escalate in 2007, although at a pace a little slower than experienced in the period from 2004 through 2006. According to the Associated General Contractors of America, construction costs, driven primarily by materials costs, spiked dramatically in 2004. The annual increase for construction materials in general was approximately 10 percent in 2004, followed by 6.0- percent and 8.8-percent increases in 2005 and 2006, respectively. This compares to increases of 3.8 percent in the consumer price index and 3.7 percent in the producer price index for the period from August 2005 to August 2006. In 2004 and 2005, these two latter indices experienced annual increases averaging about 4.0 percent. The outlook for the future is for more of the same, although at a somewhat slower pace. For example, steel prices experienced a 48.8-percent increase in 2004, which was preceded by significant increases in scrap iron and steel prices in 2002 and 2003. Steel prices held steady in 2005 but jumped again in 2006. They are expected to increase again in 2007 and beyond as demand for steel from construction projects in China and India increases. Scrap iron and steel prices have increased approximately 20 percent in the past twelve months. Other important factors contributing to the increases in construction costs include the cost of diesel fuel used for transportation of both raw and finished goods. Some relief has occurred recently, with fuel costs dropping in tandem with crude oil prices have dropped. But uncertainties of supply in crude oil markets and the somewhat tenuous situation in OPEC nations both economically and politically indicate continuing volatility in future pricing. Further, winter temperatures in 2006-07 could alter the balance between diesel and heating oil production, causing a price escalation in one or both of these fuels. Concrete prices are expected to continue to increase spurred by the ongoing increases in cement, aggregate and the fuel necessary to mine or extract these components. The recent downturn in the residential construction industry may moderate concrete price increases, but the impact of ongoing construction in China and India may more than offset these influences. The anticipated increase in the number of hotels currently in the development pipeline will certainly be affected by construction cost increases. Clearly, rising costs will have an impact on budgeting for new development or renovation projects. Construction contractors, particularly smaller ones, may not be able to offer guaranteed-maximum construction contracts, because they may not have the purchasing power to secure materials at favorable or fixed prices. Even the larger contractors are likely to hedge their contract quotes with provisions that shift the risk of increasing materials costs to the developer. This will affect every aspect of a construction project, particularly the scheduling of sub-contractors and deliveries of materials. Developers will be eager to adhere to a tight project schedule, while contractors will often be at the mercy of the materials suppliers as well as the availability of materials themselves. Faced with this situation, what can a developer or owner do to protect its interests? The following strategies may provide some ideas for further consideration and even innovation: Increase the use of pre-fabricated components in new construction; this may accelerate the overall development timeline; Evaluate materials specifications carefully to ensure the most appropriate and cost-effective materials are being used; Ensure that construction project management is fully qualified and up to speed on new developments in the materials supply arena; Value engineer the projects design and specifications thoroughly, and then do it again; Ensure design standards and space programming make maximum use of as much building area as possible for revenue-producing activities. By constantly monitoring changes in the markets for both construction materials and labor costs, and planning projects with extreme care, a developer or owner can protect its interests and ensure that a project has a better-than-even chance of being completed on time and on budget. # 3 ISHC Top Ten Issue TECHNOLOGY Despite a growing awareness of the value of modern, integrated systems, many properties still do not take advantage of them as fully as they might to maximize revenue opportunities. Many also fail to support and secure them to the extent appropriate to the value of their data and to the legal consequences of that data becoming stolen or corrupted. A significant factor restricting wider adoption is the challenge of improving the systems ease of use as they continue to grow in functionality, in both operational and guest-facing areas. All of these issues support a trend to outsourcing the more complex operational functions and system security to expert, central staff, either corporate or third party. The major factors involved are: the complexity of the hotel environment, which historically has required many different systems to interact with each other, a lack of awareness of how much efficiency could be improved through the use of modern integrated systems, a historic preference for investing funds in FFE rather than in the systems themselves or in regular training for their users, and the difficulty of providing comprehensive, expert technical support at the individual property level for the multiple systems used there. Hospitality management systems have evolved into sophisticated, well integrated, multi-discipline tools capable of helping properties of all types and sizes attract more guests, generate more revenue and reach much-improved levels of efficiency. Years of development in expanding the capabilities of individual systems, together with improvements in both interface technology and vendor cooperation, have produced far more comprehensive and better-integrated systems that can now cover virtually all areas of even a complex resort property or a multi-property chain. This brings obvious benefits from having more complete and accurate data, both operationally and in regard to guests profile and history information. However, many properties handicap themselves through hanging on to systems well past their competitively useful life, greatly restricting their ability to implement such revenue-enhancing measures as taking Internet reservations, performing effective rate/revenue management, collecting more detailed guest data for customer relationship management and targeted marketing, and so on. Sometimes this comes from a lack of appreciation of their potential upside, but there is also often apprehension about the difficulty of integrating older but still valuable systems into a more modern, integrated whole. Current interface technologies go a long way to alleviating this issue, but many properties have found that the benefits from replacing valued older systems with a more comprehensive, integrated system outweigh the possible loss of some minor functionality. Another factor discouraging upgrades is that the more comprehensive systems can seem challenging to use. Certainly good user interface design, as much an art as a science, is something vendors continue to pursue through better data layouts, property-specific screen customizations, the subtle use of color and differing fonts to guide users through the logical sequence of operations, and so on. This is likely to be a continuing challenge in both guest and operations technology. Check-in kiosks and guestroom technology, for example, must be as intuitive to use as possible, for a wide range of guest ages and technical familiarity. Nevertheless, as far as hotel-management systems are concerned the disadvantages of an unintuitive user interface can be overcome through user training, yet many hotels handicap their users by not providing refresher training on at least an annual basis. In an industry with traditionally high staff turnover this virtually guarantees that the systems wont be used effectively, hindering the property from realizing the full return on its investment and maximizing its revenue. Further, as systems become more comprehensive and wide-ranging their support and security management become both more complex and more essential. Loss of access to the system through hardware, software or network failure is completely disruptive since equivalent manual procedures are now virtually impossible to implement quickly. It is very difficult for an individual property to afford in-house technical support personnel trained in all the systems it uses, yet many properties do not have support agreements with third party vendors that might pro-actively prevent imminent problems. More importantly, guest profile data is becoming an increasingly attractive target for identity theft, and attacks on computer systems containing it are becoming more focused and more sophisticated. In addition, legislation such as Sarbanes-Oxley holds corporate officers personally accountable for the accuracy of their financial data. Despite these factors, many systems do not provide audit trails of which user changed key configuration parameters. Further, although all systems track the user ID responsible for changes to guest data, many hotels fail to enforce control over the sharing of IDs and passwords among users, making it impossible to know who entered or modified specific data or sometimes even just whos signed on to the network. All of these factors encourage the movement towards more professional systems management; either from a corporate resource team shared among many properties or contracted out to a professional third party. Centralized revenue management teams, for example, can provide expert help to multiple properties in a regionally cohesive way. Centrally-hosted systems allow for highly-qualified technicians to provide a far more secure and managed systems environment than would be available to an individual property. This trend is expected to continue as awareness grows of the value of keeping systems operating at peak efficiency, and of the potential damage from security breaches. # 4 ISHC Top Ten Issue CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS THE IMPACT ON TRAVEL TRENDS The impact of changing demographics on travel trends is a so far reaching no sector in travel, tourism and hospitality remains unaffected. Whether the subject is the gradual retirement of baby boomers, rampant globalization and its impact on business travel, or the increased demand for experiential travel, the dramatic worldwide shift in demographics poses both challenges and opportunities. These recent and ongoing changes in the demographic environment hold major implications for the hospitality industry in particular. With regard to product and service offerings, hoteliers need to begin a strategy that addresses multi-generational needs, wants and desires. Now, more than ever, hoteliers must offer design and amenities that cater to the special needs of aging consumers (Baby Boomers), as well as younger travelers (Gen-X and Gen-Y), who have high expectations in regard to design and technology. The traditional practice of brand standardization flies in the face of this. Hoteliers must adapt and look for ways to enhance all guest experiences regardless of generation. On January 1, 2006 the first of Americas seventy-eight million baby boomers turned sixty-years old, while the last one turned forty. In fact, nearly 8,000 boomers are turning sixty on a daily basis, and according to US Census Bureau statistics, the number of boomers expected to be living in the year 2030 is 57.8 million. This is the year boomers will be between ages 66 and 84. What does this milestone mean for hoteliers? It means changing the way we have traditionally connected with the so-called senior market. Primarily because boomers will not grow old quietly as previous generations have. This is the generation that has, and will continue to redefine the traditional ideas of aging. Boomers will be more active in their retirement, firmly believing that 50s and 60s are now middle age. This is primarily due to longer life expectancies and significant improvements to overall health and well-being. Although boomers will continue to be important in both population and economical terms, the younger markets (the 49 million Gen Xers and 72 million Gen Y set) are now coming into their own, entering middle management positions, stepping into political offices, and assuming their rightful positions of influence and affluence. It is important for hoteliers to bring the generations together and begin to serve their different habits, patterns and needs. The successful model for true solutions will require long lead times, but here are some suggested approaches. Adopt a universal design approach that includes lower beds, brighter lighting, larger fonts, and walk-in showers that are all easier to use, yet hip, cool and high-tech so that younger consumers are drawn to their design. Offer choices that give customer options rather than pre-determined packages. Create experiences versus tours. This allows individuals or multi-generational groups to determine what best works and appeals to them. High-tech guestrooms must become the norm rather than the exception. Today, its all about Internet access, wireless environments, and flat-screen TVs on the walls. But hoteliers must strive to keep up with the relevant technology that is not only expected from the business traveler, but also the leisure and younger sets. The continual widespread adoption of technology by the public will continue to have impact on the consumer expectation of their hotel experience. While there will be an increase in health travel offerings targeting the aging population such as medical spas, the offerings should also include elements of adventure, spirituality, or stress management that will appeal to younger markets. And finally, consider creating a panel of half a dozen or more people from different age and cultural groups who are willing to talk with you on a regular basis about their concerns and experiences, while giving you honest feedback on your products and services. Only by knowing how the motivations of your customers are tied to the underlying values of the generation to which they belong will you be able to tailor your products and services to their needs, interests, and desires. Applied knowledgeably, that information will provide you with a key competitive advantage. # 5 ISHC Top Ten Issue THE FUTURE OF HOTEL PROFITS We can anticipate that it will become increasingly difficult to sustain profit growth and improved return on investment performance. And for several reasons including:1) increasing operating costs that will outpace the growth of Revenues Per Available Room (RevPAR). 2) the rising costs of capital and the need for reinvestment that will adversely affect hotel returns. 3) Increasing labor and benefits costs that are being driven by changes in demographics, government regulations and labor agreements, and 4) higher energy costs. In the US for example, according to Smith Travel Research, RevPAR growth has been robust over the last three years reaching a projected peak in 2006 at 8.9 percent. While there is some debate about exactly where the industry is in the current cycle, there appears to be a consensus that RevPAR growth has peaked. For 2007 Smith Travel Research is projecting growth of 7.1 percent, and with the threat of increased supply looming on the horizon, year over year RevPAR growth is expected to continue to decline. Rising interest rates and higher equity return requirements are anticipated to result in higher costs of capital. At the same time, reinvestment costs (capital expenditures) are increasing as existing supply ages. As a consequence, profits will be reduced and owner returns are expected to decline over the next 12 to 24 months. Labor costs are the number one factor impacting hotel expenses. They are being affected by: Changes in demographics that are expected to constrict the available labor pool; Government regulations (higher minimum wages, immigration constraints, and mandated healthcare); New labor agreements that include significant increases in wages and continued limits on the ability to cross train; and Higher benefit expenses resulting from increased health insurance costs and pension requirements. In 2005, utilities grew at a rate of 13.6 percent over the prior year according to PKF Hospitality Research. While oil prices have been falling in recent months they remain slightly above 2005 levels. Utility expenses are not expected to decline significantly during 2007, and as such will remain an area of concern impacting hotel profitability into the future. In some cases, the factors that have been identified as affecting hotel profitability are out of the control of individual hotel owners and operators, however, there are steps that can be taken to mitigate their impact. For example: by giving increased attention to yield management, operators can potentially increase their RevPAR; through creative financing and diligent oversight of capital expenditures operators can increase their return on investment; improved employee retention and the use of alternate labor sources such as retirees can help to contain employee labor costs; and the installation of new energy saving devices and more efficient design can help to control energy expense. # 6 ISHC Top Ten Issue BRANDING: Mitigating Consumer Confusion over Brand Proliferation and Investor Concerns over Cross-Brand Impact As most of us involved in hotel development and operations are aware, there has been an explosion of new hotel brands/products announced over the past three to four years. Aloft, Cambria, Indigo, Waldorf-Astoria, Hyatt Place, NYLO, Viceroy, Capella, and most recently 1, are but a few examples of this rabid expansion of product type among both the major hotel franchise companies and small start-ups or spin-off management firms trying to establish themselves as a brand. But, despite all the hype and promotion surrounding the roll-out of these new hotels products, and the promise that each will be unique and different from their existing or future competition through design, price point, service levels, amenities, and/or the mattress, do the vast majority of consumers really understand all of the products? Do they want them? And what about the existing hotel franchisee or owner faced with yet another brand competitor under an existing franchise umbrella that is first viewed as splitting the pie even further? What does it do to their demand base? How about the going concern value of their asset? Today, there are an estimated 140 + hotel brands, up from approximately 80 in 1995 and estimated 110 brands in 2000. Are all these brands and choices necessary? Are more brands better, or are we merely creating more confusion for an already confused customer base? The answer is probably yes and yes, but not necessarily negative. Much of the new product being launched is attempting to capture an evolving consumer whose tastes and preferences are changing as they age. The baby boom generation, Gen Xers and Yers, Millenniums, etc., all have demographic characteristics and psychographic needs that may or may not be satisfied by todays hotel products. So the idea is that these new brands and products will better meet these consumers evolving needs in sufficient quantity to be market and financially successful. In that light, the larger issue is what to do with the brands left behind. They never seem to go away! Perhaps thats where more thought and effort should be concentrated by industry consultants, investors and franchisors. On the other hand, in the case of start-up hotel companies such as, Kor, West Paces Hotel Group, which rolled out the Solis and Capella luxury brands under the leadership of a former Ritz Carlton executive, or most recently the 1 luxury brand, begs the question as to whether there is perhaps too much equity and debt capital chasing too few deals in a hot hotel market rather than a verifiable market need for a better mouse trap. From an existing hotel franchisee/operator perspective, how do the major franchise companies protect their existing franchise partners from the impact against these new products so that the new product is not cannibalizing the existing demand base, particularly when there are 10 to 15 years left on the existing operators franchise agreement? This is an on-going issue that continues to surface, but has yet to be resolved between franchisor and franchisee. Franchisee councils, 3rd party impact studies, and areas of protection are a few of the methods used to address this complex issue, but none have proven to be a panacea. In both cases, the onslaught of new brands is a cyclical one and tends to occur during the up and peak points of the hotel cycle. So it is likely that this proliferation will subside as the industry cycle matures or begins to decline. At that point, as we have seen too often, the new brands that were ill-conceived and lacking clear definition and marketability ultimately become the weaker performers which are then often absorbed by the stronger ones. Eventually, these same brands (and all the hotels bearing their name) that fail to capture sufficient consumer interest languish and trade down the food chain of franchise companies over time, or are broken up and sold off in pieces. These thoughts would suggest that, perhaps as an industry, we should focus more on creative alternative uses for marginal brands and properties as opposed to worrying about the new ones stealing existing business. # 7 ISHC Top Ten Issue DISTRIBUTION REVOLUTION In 2006, it is estimated that $24 billion worth of hotel rooms in the US alone will be booked through internet sites representing 27% of US hotel industry room revenues up from $15.5 billion just two years ago. Moreover, industry analysts estimate an additional 25 to 30% of all hotel bookings are influenced by online research. The bottom line is that the hospitality industry continues to experience a revolution in distribution, and organizations are less and less equipped to keep pace with the dramatic changes in this online landscape. As distribution via the Internet evolved many experts agreed that online presence helped level the playing field; that independent hotels and small hotel companies could compete in cyberspace with major brands. Today, the issue is not can they compete but can any hotel or hotel company keep pace with the colossal changes and innovations that flood the online world? At the property level the first challenge was to effectively (and more efficiently) manage a myriad of distribution channels from a tactical perspective. Certainly the efforts to do a better job at the tactical side of distribution management have paid off. Although theres still room for improvement in this regard, online inventory management and better application of rate integrity policies have certainly helped hotels take back control of their inventories and pricing. The newest challenge is represented in the strategic side of distribution management and more specifically the ability to understand, manage and market to the consumer in the online world. This playing field is changing so rapidly that it is virtually impossible to keep pace. Hospitality professionals, whether they be in ownership positions, senior management at corporate or a property level executive, must become online savvy. Without some understanding of the online consumers buying behavior, it is impossible to effectively level the playing field or allocate marketing dollars intelligently. From travel blogs to consumer reviews from travel oriented social networking to highly targeted, email based direct marketing from really simple syndication (RSS permits users to subscribe to their choice of Web content) to the use of rich media to differentiate hotel productall of these innovations are causing what PhocusWright terms the power shift toward consumers. The question is: Are hotels ready for this? In many cases our collective heads are still spinning from the first wave of online distribution challenges. Now hotels must be even savvier about every aspect of how their product reaches the consumer. Directors of Sales Marketing and Directors of Revenue Management must understand at least the basics of search engine optimization, pay-per-click marketing, link popularity strategies and web traffic analysis. Allocation of marketing budgets and resources must be carefully managed to optimize reach. And the connection (and